Hurricane Risk Analysis Framework

The framework consists of a hazard analysis module, a vulnerability analysis module, and a loss estimation module. In the hazard analysis module, a scenario-hurricane event for the study area is selected by analyzing the frequency of past hurricanes and risk mitigation objectives. Characteristics of historical hurricanes are obtained from the HURDAT2 database, including path trajectory and wind speed distribution. Building specific maximum peak gust wind speed is then determined for the selected scenario hurricane. In the vulnerability analysis module, the probability of exceeding four damage states, namely minor, moderate, severe, and complete, of a building is determined using fragility functions and estimated peak gust wind speed. Damage level is then assigned to a building stochastically by comparing the maximum peak gust wind speed, probabilities of damage states, and a randomly generated number. Finally, in the loss estimation module, direct financial losses resulting from physical damages are evaluated using building damage ratio and building replacement values. Social impacts are assessed by estimating the number of dislocated households, potential employment disruption, and the number of students who lost their access to school.